{"organism":"Page","children":[{"organism":"Container.Raw","children":[{"organism":"Metadata","model":{"title":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat","text":"\u003Cp\u003EAl is Nederland over een paar jaar wellicht militair wat meer klaar voor donkere dagen, dan is ze dat op energievlak in ieder geval niet. Dat blijkt uit het rapport \u003Ci style=\"font-size: 0.8125rem;\"\u003E“No fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness”\u003C/i\u003E dat het Haagse Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) eind mei publiceerde. \u003C/p\u003E\r\n","links":[{"name":"Lees over No fuel, no fight","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight.html"}],"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/metadata.shellimg.jpeg/1781442523161/netherlands-venster2605-f-35rnlaf250404fuh7961014-rnlaf-sgtmaj-jan-dijkstra-169.jpeg","alt":"Nederlandse F-35-gevechtsvliegtuigen op oefening bij de Amerikanen op vliegbasis Ramstein in Duitsland, 4 april 2025 (Foto: USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt. Maj Jan Dijkstra)","width":3000,"height":1688},"date":"2026-06-17T06:19:00.000Z","tags":[{"name":"Olie en Gas","value":"shell:netherlands/olie-en-gas"}]},"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/metadata"},{"organism":"ContentOwner","model":{},"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/contentowner"},{"organism":"Container.Header","children":[{"organism":"Container.Raw","ref":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/_jcr_content/root/header/inherited.model.json","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/header/inherited","model":{}},{"organism":"Breadcrumb","model":{"links":[{"name":"Home","value":"https://www.shell.nl/"},{"name":"Over ons","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons.html"},{"name":"Nieuws","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws.html"},{"name":"Shell Venster 2026","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026.html"},{"name":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight.html"}]},"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/header/breadcrumb"}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/header","model":{}},{"organism":"Container.Main","children":[{"organism":"Container.Section","children":[{"organism":"PageHeader.Date","color":"inherited","model":{"title":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat","text":"\u003Cp\u003EHet is september 2031. Nederlandse en Duitse grondtroepen hebben zich al een paar maanden ingegraven bij de Wisła-rivier in Polen. Vanaf Leeuwarden, Volkel en Lelystad kiezen zwaarbewapende F-35-gevechtsvliegtuigen elke paar uur het luchtruim. Op Schiphol zijn dan al de meeste vakantievluchten geschrapt. De speelweide in Het Amsterdams Bos is het nieuwe honk van luchtdoelraketten, klaar om de nationale luchthaven en de hoofdstad te beschermen.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n","image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section/page_header.shellimg.jpeg/1781441350052/netherlands-venster2605-f-35rnlaf250404fuh7961014-rnlaf-sgtmaj-jan-dijkstra-169.jpeg","alt":"Nederlandse F-35-gevechtsvliegtuigen op oefening bij de Amerikanen op vliegbasis Ramstein in Duitsland, 4 april 2025 (Foto: USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt. Maj Jan Dijkstra)","width":3000,"height":1688},"date":"2026-06-17T06:19:00.000Z"},"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/page_header"},{"organism":"Author.Info","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/author","model":{"text":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETekst:\u003C/b\u003E Marcel Burger. \u003Cb\u003EBeeld:\u003C/b\u003E USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt. Maj Jan Dijkstra, ANP/Remko de Waal, Shell Nederland.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n","links":[{}],"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section/author.shellimg.jpeg/1781441982077/netherlands-venster2605-f-35rnlaf250404fuh7961014-rnlaf-sgtmaj-jan-dijkstra-169.jpeg","alt":"Nederlandse F-35-gevechtsvliegtuigen op oefening bij de Amerikanen op vliegbasis Ramstein in Duitsland, 4 april 2025 (Foto: USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt. Maj Jan Dijkstra)","width":3000,"height":1688}}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"CallToAction.Stacked","color":"brand3","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/call_to_action","model":{"links":[{"name":"For English, click here or scroll down","value":"#english"}]}},{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"brand1-solid","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/text_1706599276","model":{"title":"In dit verhaal:","links":[{"name":"In geval van conflict kunnen noch Nederland noch de EU voldoen aan de vraag naar militaire brandstof","value":"#conflict","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"},{"name":"Het meest schrijnend zal het tekort aan vliegtuigbrandstof zijn","value":"#kerosine","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"},{"name":"Nederlands staat onder druk vanwege haar rol als NAVO-gastland","value":"#navo-gastland","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"},{"name":"Bij onvoldoende brandstof krijgt de krijgsmacht voorrang","value":"#voorrang","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"},{"name":"No fuel, no fight is een aanmoediging voor meer militair-civiele samenwerking in energie","value":"#energie","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"},{"name":"Oproep aan regeringen om brandstofvoorraden veilig te stellen","value":"#voorraden","icon":"/content/dam/shell/icons/global/navigation/arrow-down-circle.svg"}]}},{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/text","model":{"text":"\u003Cp\u003EHet geschetste scenario in de inleiding lijkt in eerste instantie een mooi begin van een Tom Clancy-boek of \u003Ci\u003Estreaming \u003C/i\u003Etv-serie. Maar helemaal ondenkbaar is het ook weer niet, voor wie de geopolitieke ontwikkelingen aan Europa’s oostgrens is blijven volgen. \u003Cb\u003EEn\u003C/b\u003E \u003Cb\u003Eal is Nederland over een paar jaar wellicht militair wat meer klaar voor donkere dagen, dan is ze dat op energievlak in ieder geval niet.\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca id=\"conflict\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EDat blijkt uit het rapport \u003Ci\u003E“No fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness”\u003C/i\u003E dat het Haagse Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) eind mei publiceerde. In ‘geen brandstof, geen gevecht’ wordt het zo samengevat: “\u003Cb\u003EIn geval van een conflict kunnen noch Nederland noch de EU voldoen aan de sterk stijgende vraag naar militaire brandstof terwijl de civiele economie blijft functioneren.\u003C/b\u003E Er worden aanzienlijke tekorten verwacht in zowel de tijdsbestekken van 2030 als 2040, die ontstaan tijdens de opbouwfase vóór het conflict en verergeren zodra een grootschalige oorlog uitbreekt.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca id=\"kerosine\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EVliegtuigbrandstof\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHet meest schrijnend zal\u003C/b\u003E volgens rapportmakers Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop en \u003Ca href=\"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2024/de-rol-van-olie-en-gas.html\"\u003ELucia van Geuns\u003C/a\u003E \u003Cb\u003Ehet tekort aan vliegtuigbrandstof zijn\u003C/b\u003E. De schatting die ze erop los laten, een kerosinetekort van maximaal 24% in de Europese Unie, is nog aan de conservatieve kant. Want zelfs met het bestaande conflict in de Perzische Golf, met noch de EU noch de NAVO militair betrokken, is een substantieel effect al merkbaar.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELuchtvaartmaatschappijen schrapten sinds dit voorjaar al vluchten vanwege gestegen brandstofprijzen\u003C/b\u003E door tekorten en Fatih Birol, de baas van het Internationaal Energieagentschap (IEA), waarschuwde medio april in een interview met Associated Press nog: “er is misschien genoeg kerosine in Europa voor nog maar zes weken”.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"brand1-subtle","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_385065899/text","model":{"title":"Over No fuel, no fight","text":"\u003Cp\u003EHet Haagse Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) schreef het rapport “\u003Ci\u003ENo fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness\u003C/i\u003E” op basis van onderzoek in opdracht van Vemobin, een vereniging van partijen uit de energiesector. Het rapport is geschreven door de strategisch analysten Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop en strategisch adviseur \u003Ca title=\"De rol van olie en gas\" aria-label=\"De rol van olie en gas\" href=\"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2024/de-rol-van-olie-en-gas.html\"\u003ELucia van Geuns\u003C/a\u003E. Voormalig Commandant der Strijdkrachten Tom Middendorp, voormalig legerkorpscommandant Nico Tak, oud-stafmilitair Michel Rademaker, beleidsstagiair Marit Weurding, data-analist Maria-Antigone Rumpf en Energex Partner droegen bij aan het rapport.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n","links":[{"name":"Lees het hele rapport","value":"https://hcss.nl/report/no-fuel-no-fight-the-dutch-fuel-industry-and-european-military-readiness/"}]}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_385065899","model":{}},{"organism":"StandaloneAsset","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/standalone_asset","model":{"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section/standalone_asset.shellimg.jpeg/1781517438004/netherlands-venster2605-navo-gastland-nl-anp-460606785remko-de-waal-169.jpeg","caption":"Militair materieel van de US Army wordt aan land gebracht in de haven van Vlissingen, voor verder transport over de weg, via het spoor en over het water naar Polen en Litouwen voor een NAVO-versterkingsoefening, januari 2023.","alt":"Militair materieel van de US Army wordt aan land gebracht in de haven van Vlissingen, voor verder transport over de weg, via het spoor en over het water naar Polen en Litouwen voor een NAVO-versterkingsoefening, januari 2023. (Foto: ANP/Remko de Waal)","width":3708,"height":2086}}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_19627708/text","model":{"text":"\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca id=\"navo-gastland\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003ENederland als NAVO-gastland\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIn een conflict heeft Nederland als voordeel dat het met Shell Pernis — Europa’s grootste raffinaderij — een behoorlijke eigen brandstofproductie heeft.\u003C/b\u003E Toch zien de rapportmakers van \u003Ci\u003ENo fuel, no fight\u003C/i\u003E een nadeel: in de functie die Nederland, samen met Antwerpen, heeft om militaire versterkingen te ontvangen en naar het front in het oosten te helpen.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“\u003Cb\u003ENederland staat onder nog grotere druk dan de rest van Europa vanwege haar rol als NAVO‑gastland\u003C/b\u003E. Tijdens een grootschalig conflict zou tot 35% van de Nederlandse vraag naar vliegtuigbrandstof en 13% van de vraag naar brandstof voor wegverkeer onvervuld blijven”, zo schrijven Patrahau, Stoop en Van Geuns.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EVolgens de rapportmakers komt de Nederlandse energie-infrastructuur al snel onder enorme druk, al tijdens het samentrekken van troepen voordat er nog maar een schot is gelost. “En Nederland zal naar alle waarschijnlijkheid ook doelwit van sabotage worden”, staat in het rapport. “Met aanvallen op kritische infrastructuur of stroomuitval in de Rotterdamse haven zal het brandstofnetwerk ernstig worden gestoord.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca id=\"voorrang\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EVoorrang voor de krijgsmacht\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBij onvoldoende brandstof zal de Nederlandse regering de eigen krijgsmacht en die van NAVO-bondgenoten voorrang geven op de rest van de maatschappij\u003C/b\u003E, zo beredeneren de rapportmakers. Het leger draait naast kerosine vooral op diesel, en dat zal dus niet zonder gevolgen zijn voor de transportsector, de schappen in de winkels en de hele economie.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EUitgezoomd naar heel Europa zien Patrahau, Stoop en Van Geuns een krimpende Europese raffinagecapaciteit als een groot risico. \u003Cb\u003ETegen 2040 zou de EU in een crisis wel eens voor 72% van haar brandstof afhankelijk kunnen zijn van het buitenland.\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_19627708","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"Quote.Small","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_282377884/quote","model":{"title":"Irina Patrahau, hoofdauteur HCSS-rapport No fuel, no fight","text":"\u003Cp\u003E“Europa kan er niet vanuit gaan dat in tijden van crisis brandstof beschikbaar, betaalbaar en gemakkelijk te transporteren blijft\"\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_282377884","model":{}},{"organism":"StandaloneAsset","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/standalone_asset_cop","model":{"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section/standalone_asset_cop.shellimg.png/1781441968496/pernis-refinery-rotterdam-netherlands.png","caption":"De rafinaderij van Shell Pernis heeft een sleutelrol in de brandstofbevoorrading van Nederland en omliggende landen","alt":"De rafinaderij van Shell Pernis heeft een sleutelrol in de brandstofbevoorrading van Nederland en omliggende landen (Foto: Shell Nederland)","width":3840,"height":2160}}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_1778937501/text","model":{"text":"\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca id=\"energie\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EMilitair-civiele samenwerking in energie\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHet rapport van het Haagse Centrum voor Strategische Studies is vooral een waarschuwing voor behoud van de energiebasisindustrie in Nederland\u003C/b\u003E, een pleidooi voor het versnellen van inzet van alternatieve energiebronnen voor de gewone economie, een oproep aan Europa om zelf de energiestromen veilig te stellen, \u003Cb\u003Een een aanmoediging voor meer militair-civiele samenwerking op het gebied van energievoorziening\u003C/b\u003E.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“Het risico op een conflict in Europa is hoger dan ooit sinds het einde van de Koude Oorlog”, schrijven Patrahau, Stoop en Van Geuns. “Maar de brandstofzekerheid blijft achter.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca id=\"voorraden\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EBrandstofvoorraden veiligstellen\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“Lange tijd waren brandstoffen een overvloedige grondstof voor Europese strijdkrachten: gemakkelijk op korte termijn te verkrijgen en tegen betaalbare prijzen. De leveringszekerheid is echter niet langer vanzelfsprekend en \u003Cb\u003Eregeringen moeten actie ondernemen om brandstofvoorraden veilig te stellen\u003C/b\u003E”, concluderen de rapportmakers.\u003Ci\u003E\u003C/i\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EEen oorlogsscenario zoals gebruikt voor het rapport, maar ook de opening van dit verhaal, is fictie. Maar dat leek niet zo lang geleden ook voor de driedaagse “speciale operatie” van Rusland in Oekraïene — inmiddels in haar vijfde jaar van oorlogvoeren. Nederlandse militairen trainen inmiddels hun Oekraïense collega’s, of gaan voor spek en bonen op oefening op NAVO’s oostflank. Maar Nederlandse F-35’s en luchtverdediging uit De Peel stonden en staan al wel op scherp in Polen. \u003Ca href=\"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/hebben-we-genoeg-brandstof-om-europa-veilig-te-houden-.html\"\u003EEn daarvoor moet ook nu al de brandstof ergens vandaan komen\u003C/a\u003E.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Csub\u003EGeraadpleegde bronnen: No Fuel, No Fight The Dutch Fuel Industry and European Military Readiness — door Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop en Lucia van Geuns, The Hague Centrum for Strategic Studies, mei 2026; \u003Ca title=\"Associated Press\" aria-label=\"Associated Press\" href=\"https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"\u003EAssociated Press\u003C/a\u003E; Ministerie van Defensie\u003C/sub\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_1778937501","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"PromoCard","color":"brand1-subtle","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_2114093620/promo","model":{"title":"Lees ook: Parttime militair bij Shell","links":[{"value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/part-time-militair-bij-shell.html"}],"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_2114093620/promo.shellimg.jpeg/1781442339898/netherlands-venster2605-larissa-expanded.jpeg","alt":"Larissa Terdu","width":3640,"height":2048}}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section/simple_2114093620","model":{}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section","model":{}},{"organism":"Container.Section","color":"brand1-subtle","children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/text","model":{"text":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca id=\"english\"\u003E\u003C/a\u003EEnglish version\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}},{"organism":"StandaloneAsset","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset","model":{"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset.shellimg.jpeg/1781598457321/netherlands-venster2605-f-35rnlaf250404fuh7961014-rnlaf-sgtmaj-jan-dijkstra-166.jpeg","caption":"Royal Netherlands Air Force F-35A multi-role fighters deployed to Ramstein Airbase in Germany for a joint exercise with the US Air Force, 4 April 2025","alt":"Royal Netherlands Air Force F-35A multi-role fighters deployed to Ramstein Airbase in Germany for a joint exercise with the US Air Force, 4 April 2025 (Photo: USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt Maj Jan Dijkstra)","width":3000,"height":1125}}},{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/text_1240317962","model":{"text":"\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENo fuel, no fight: for when the Netherlands is on high alert\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h2\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E17 June 2026\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIt is September 2031. Dutch and German ground troops have been dug in for several months along the Vistula (Wisła) river in Poland. Heavily armed F-35 fighter jets take to the skies every few hours from the airbases of Leeuwarden, Volkel and Lelystad. By then, most holiday flights at Amsterdam-Schiphol International have been cancelled. The R&R meadow in the nearby green zone Amsterdamse Bos has become the new base for surface-to-air missiles, ready to protect the national airport and the capital.\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}},{"organism":"Author.Info","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/author_copy","model":{"text":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EText:\u003C/b\u003E Marcel Burger. \u003Cb\u003EPhotography:\u003C/b\u003E USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt Maj Jan Dijkstra, ANP/Remko de Waal, Shell Netherlands.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n","links":[{}],"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/author_copy.shellimg.jpeg/1781601020879/netherlands-venster2605-f-35rnlaf250404fuh7961014-rnlaf-sgtmaj-jan-dijkstra-169.jpeg","alt":"Nederlandse F-35-gevechtsvliegtuigen op oefening bij de Amerikanen op vliegbasis Ramstein in Duitsland, 4 april 2025 (Foto: USAF/Koninklijke Luchtmacht/Sgt. Maj Jan Dijkstra)","width":3000,"height":1688}}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple/text","model":{"text":"\u003Cp\u003EAt first, the scenario sketched in the introduction may seem a compelling prologue to a Tom Clancy novel or a streaming television series. Yet it is not entirely inconceivable for those who have continued to follow geopolitical developments along Europe’s eastern border. And although the Netherlands may be somewhat better prepared militarily for darker days in a few years’ time, it is certainly not in terms of energy supplies.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThis is evident from the report \u003Ci\u003E“No fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness”\u003C/i\u003E, published at the end of May by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). In \u003Ci\u003E“No fuel, no fight”\u003C/i\u003E, it is summarised as follows: “in the event of conflict, neither the Netherlands nor the EU can meet surging military fuel demand while keeping the civilian economy functioning. Serious shortfalls are projected across both the 2030 and 2040 timeframes, arising during the pre-conflict build-up phase and becoming more acute once full-scale war breaks out.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAviation fuel\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h3\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAccording to the report’s authors — Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop and Lucia van Geuns — the most acute shortage will be in aviation fuel. Their estimate of a kerosene shortfall of up to 24% in the European Union is, if anything, on the conservative side. Even with the current conflict in the Persian Gulf, in which neither the EU nor NATO is militarily involved, a substantial impact is already being felt.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003ESince this spring, airlines have already cancelled flights due to rising fuel prices caused by shortages, and in mid-April Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned in an interview with the Associated Press: “There may be enough jet fuel in Europe for only another six weeks.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"brand1","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_1418600656/text_copy","model":{"title":"About No fuel, no fight","text":"\u003Cp\u003EThe Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) prepared the report \u003Ci\u003E“No fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness”\u003C/i\u003E on the basis of research commissioned by Vemobin, an association representing parties in the energy sector. The report was written by strategic analysts Irina Patrahau and Ron Stoop, and strategic adviser Lucia van Geuns. Former Chief of Defence Tom Middendorp, former Army Corps commander Nico Tak, former military staff officer Michel Rademaker, policy intern Marit Weurding, data analyst Maria-Antigone Rumpf and Energex Partner also contributed to the report.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n","links":[{"name":"Read the full report","value":"https://hcss.nl/report/no-fuel-no-fight-the-dutch-fuel-industry-and-european-military-readiness/"}]}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_1418600656","model":{}},{"organism":"StandaloneAsset","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset_cop","model":{"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset_cop.shellimg.jpeg/1781600169440/netherlands-venster2605-navo-gastland-nl-anp-460606785remko-de-waal-169.jpeg","caption":"US Army equipment is being offloaded in Vlissingen (Flushing) harbour, the Netherlands, for further transport via road, rail and waterways to Poland and Lithuania, for a NATO reinforcement exercise, January 2023.","alt":"US Army equipment is being offloaded in Vlissingen (Flushing) harbour, the Netherlands, for further transport via road, rail and waterways to Poland and Lithuania, for a NATO reinforcement exercise, January 2023. (Photo: ANP/Remko de Waal)","width":3708,"height":2086}}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_1437910106/text","model":{"text":"\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Netherlands as a NATO host nation\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h3\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EIn a conflict, the Netherlands has the advantage of possessing significant domestic fuel production, with Shell Pernis being Europe’s largest refinery. Nevertheless, the authors of \u003Ci\u003ENo fuel, no fight\u003C/i\u003E identify a drawback: the role the Netherlands, together with Antwerp in Belgium, plays in receiving military reinforcements and helping to move them towards the eastern front.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“The Netherlands faces even greater pressure compared to the rest of Europe given its role as a NATO Host Nation. During a full-scale conflict, up to 35% of Dutch aviation fuel demand and 13% of Dutch road fuel demand would remain unmet,” write Patrahau, Stoop and Van Geuns.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAccording to the report’s authors, Dutch energy infrastructure would come under immense strain at an early stage, even during the mobilisation of troops before a single shot has been fired. The Netherlands is also highly likely to become a target for sabotage, the report states. “With attacks on critical infrastruc ture or power outages in the Port of Rotterdam, the fuel system will be severely disrupted.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPriority for the armed forces\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h3\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the event of insufficient fuel supplies, the Dutch government would prioritise its own armed forces and those of NATO allies over the rest of society, the report argues. In addition to aviation fuel, the military relies heavily on diesel, which would inevitably have consequences for the transport sector, shelves in the supermarkets and shops, and the wider economy.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003ELooking at Europe as a whole, Patrahau, Stoop and Van Geuns identify shrinking European refining capacity as a major risk. By 2040, in a crisis scenario, the EU could be as much as 72% dependent on foreign fuel supplies.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_1437910106","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"Quote.Small","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2069716141/quote_copy","model":{"title":"Irina Patrahau, lead author HCSS-rapport No fuel, no fight","text":"\u003Cp\u003E“Europe cannot assume that fuel will remain available, affordable, and easy to move in times of crisis\"\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2069716141","model":{}},{"organism":"StandaloneAsset","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset_cop_1944695127","model":{"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/standalone_asset_cop_1944695127.shellimg.png/1781600437532/pernis-refinery-rotterdam-netherlands.png","caption":"The Shell Pernis refinery has a key role in the fuel supplies of the Netherlands and its neighbouring countries","alt":"The Shell Pernis refinery has a key role in the fuel supplies of the Netherlands and its neighbouring countries (Photo: Shell Netherlands)","width":3840,"height":2160}}},{"organism":"Container","children":[{"organism":"Container","colspan":8,"children":[{"organism":"PromoSimple.Text","color":"inherited","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032/simple/text","model":{"text":"\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMilitary–civilian cooperation in energy\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h3\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe report by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies is primarily a warning to preserve the energy-intensive industrial base in the Netherlands, a plea to accelerate the deployment of alternative energy sources for the civilian economy, a call for Europe to secure its own energy flows, and an encouragement to strengthen military–civilian cooperation in the field of energy supply.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“The risk of conflict in Europe is at the highest level since the end of the Cold War,” write Patrahau, Stoop and Van Geuns. “But fuel security lags behind.”\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESecuring fuel supplies\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/h3\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E“For a long time, fuels were a plentiful commodity for European militaries: easy to source in a short time and at aordable prices. Yet supply security is no longer a given and governments must act to secure fuel supplies,” the report’s authors conclude.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003EA war scenario like the one used for the report — or the one used to open this story with — is fictional. Yet not so long time ago, the same could have been said of Russia’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year of warfare. At first sight, soldiers of the Netherlands' Armed Forces seem to be engaged in 'soft' missions only: training their Ukrainian counterparts, and take part in exercises on NATO’s eastern flank. But Royal Netherlands Air Force F-35s and air defences have already been — and remain — on high alert in Poland, or can be send at a moments notice. And also now, \u003Ca aria-label=\"Is there enough fuel to keep Europe safe?\" href=\"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/hebben-we-genoeg-brandstof-om-europa-veilig-te-houden-.html#english\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003Ethe fuel for those operations has to come from somewhere\u003C/b\u003E\u003C/a\u003E.\u003C/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Csub\u003ESources consulted: No Fuel, No Fight The Dutch Fuel Industry and European Military Readiness — by Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop en Lucia van Geuns, The Hague Centrum for Strategic Studies, May 2026; \u003Ca title=\"Associated Press\" href=\"https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703\"\u003EAssociated Press\u003C/a\u003E; the Netherlands' Ministry of Defence\u003C/sub\u003E\u003C/p\u003E\r\n"}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032/simple","model":{}},{"organism":"Container","colspan":4,"children":[{"organism":"PromoCard","color":"brand1","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032/simple_1485772763/promo_copy","model":{"title":"Recommended read: part-time soldier at Shell","links":[{"value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/part-time-militair-bij-shell.html#english"}],"image":{"src":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/_jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032/simple_1485772763/promo_copy.shellimg.jpeg/1781601358217/netherlands-venster2605-larissa-expanded.jpeg","alt":"Larissa Terdu","width":3640,"height":2048}}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032/simple_1485772763","model":{}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635/simple_2141087032","model":{}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/main/section_212454635","model":{}},{"organism":"Container.Section","color":"brand1-solid","children":[{"organism":"Container.XF","children":[{"organism":"Container.Section","color":"brand1-solid","children":[{"organism":"PromoCard","color":"brand1","colspan":4,"id":"/content/experience-fragments/shell/amidala/NL/promo-footer-1/nl-venster-general/jcr_content/root/section_820370745/promo_copy_202919122","model":{"title":"Meer 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2026","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026.html"},{"name":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight.html"}]},"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/footer/breadcrumb"},{"organism":"Container.Raw","ref":"https://www.shell.nl/about-us/_jcr_content/root/footer/inherited.model.json","id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/footer/inherited","model":{}}],"id":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight/jcr_content/root/footer","model":{}}],"id":"/conf/shell/settings/wcm/templates/base/structure/jcr_content/root","model":{}}],"model":{"title":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat","text":"Al is Nederland over een paar jaar wellicht militair wat meer klaar voor donkere dagen, dan is ze dat op energievlak in ieder geval niet. Dat blijkt uit het rapport “No fuel, no fight — The Dutch fuel industry and European military readiness” dat het Haagse Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) eind mei publiceerde. ","date":"2026-06-17T06:19:00.000Z","links":[{"name":"canonical","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons/nieuws/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight.html"},{"name":"hierarchy","value":"nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight"},{"name":"homeTitle","value":"Over ons"},{"name":"homeUrl","value":"https://www.shell.nl/over-ons.html"},{"name":"locale","value":"nl-NL"},{"name":"title","value":"No fuel, no fight: voor als Nederland op scherp staat | Over ons"},{"name":"textDirection","value":"ltr"},{"name":"template","value":"base"},{"name":"contentPath","value":"/content/shell/countries/netherland/nl_nl/about-us/news/shell-venster-2026/no-fuel-no-fight"},{"name":"externalDisclaimerText","value":"Juridische Disclaimer Shell plc\r\n\r\nU verlaat nu de website van Shell in Nederland.\r\n\r\nDe link die u hebt geselecteerd verwijst naar een website die niet is gecontroleerd door Shell plc of een lid van de Shell Group. De informatie en het materiaal op de gekoppelde website worden op geen enkele manier door Shell plc, noch enig ander lid van de Shell Group bevestigd, aangenomen, gecertificeerd of op enige andere manier gevalideerd. 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