Oliecrisis: lijkt die van toen op de situatie van nu?

If the Dutch government had made different decisions this spring, the text from Shell’s historical timeline in the introduction could easily have been written yesterday. But we step back in time. The oil-producing countries united in OPEC quadruple oil prices between October and December 1973*. And then the Yom Kippur War, or Ramadan War, breaks out as well.

Operation Nickel Grass

On 6 October 1973, Egypt and Syria launch a surprise attack on Israel in an attempt to regain territory that the Jewish state had seized in 1967*. An Israeli defeat appears imminent. The United States and the Netherlands come to Israel’s aid. On 12 October, the US launches Nickel Grass: a giant resupply operation. Shipments include 82 refurbished combat aircraft from the US armed forces, guided bombs to neutralise air defences, and 567 military cargo flights to supply the Israeli army with weapons and ammunition. European countries do not open their airspace to these flights, but Portugal allows the Americans to stopover at Lajes

Dutch Centurion tanks

The Netherlands ships supplies too. In a hurried decision by Defence Minister Henk Vredeling, The Hague donates 36 Centurion main battle tanks to Israel. The Jewish state had previously received 222 of these somewhat outdated surplus tanks from the Netherlands. In the 1960s, 70s and 80s, however, Europe fears a conflict with the Moscow-imposed Warsaw Pact

It is only in 1998 that former State Secretary Bram Stemerdink says in the Dutch television programme 2Vandaag: “(Vredeling and I) decided within a few minutes to give Israel all the support that was possible. You could say that at that moment the Dutch army was completely insufficiently supplied with spare parts and ammunition for one of its main weapons systems: the Centurion tanks.”

Petrol rationing

The Arab countries punish the Netherlands, the United States and Portugal for their open military support of Israel with an oil embargo. For the Netherlands, the blockade remains in place until 10 July 1974.

At first, the Dutch government does not fully grasp the impact. Fearing a national shortage of crude oil — used, among other things, to produce fuels at Shell Pernis — petrol is put on ration. For three weeks, from 12 January to 4 February 1974, customers at fuel stations must first hand in their coupons at the till before being allowed to purchase a limited amount of petrol.

Ultimately, it turns out there is sufficient crude oil available, although motorists continue to feel the higher prices at the pump. It is a time when the Dutch cycle or roller-skate along the motorways for fun, on government-imposed car-free Sundays.

Americans hoard

In the United States, the prospect of fuel shortages causes panic among car owners — Americans begin hoarding. Long queues of stationary cars at filling stations become a symbol of the oil crisis*. In the 1960s, the United States had in fact shifted from being an oil-exporting to an oil-importing country. Industry, home heating, electricity generation and transport cannot function without oil and petroleum products*.

Allies fear the American response to the Arab oil embargo. In London, the Joint Intelligence Committee

Rise of the OPEC countries

It does not come to that, but globally oil prices do rise sharply. This is mainly due to the actions of OPEC

Libya, Iran and later the other Arab countries on the Persian Gulf want more control over — and revenue from — their own natural resources, and in 1970 they force the oil companies to hand over not half but 55% of oil revenues. In 1972, they compel shared ownership in operations.

Floodgates open

For Shell, this means a government stake of 25% in its interests in Qatar and Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). A few months later, Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, states in a speech that “national oil companies in the producing countries must begin to concern themselves with the sale (of oil)”. A sign of things to come.*

Then comes 8 October 1973 — two days after the start of the Yom Kippur/Ramadan War. The OPEC countries decide that their government share per barrel of crude oil will rise from $1.77 to $3.04. A few days later, the Arab oil-producing countries within OPEC also introduce a 5% monthly reduction in oil production.* This opens the floodgates for rising oil prices.

Shell’s global trading experience

A number of oil companies, including Shell, decide to spread the impact evenly across all customers. For Shell, its trading experience and global network prove invaluable, including for the Netherlands. Thanks to the broad spread of oil sources, Shell is able to swap oil from fields owned by Arab and non-Arab countries and thus continue to supply embargoed countries. For the Netherlands, Shell now sources crude oil from Iran and Nigeria, while some of the Iranian oil destined for Japan is replaced by oil from Qatar.*

The (First) Oil Crisis marks the starting point for oil and gas companies, and countries, to reduce their dependence on oil from "the Gulf”, and leads to the development of offshore oil and gas production.

From Ireland to Brazil — and the North Sea

Shell, too, turns its attention offshore. By 1976, its activities are spread over one million square kilometres, with 60% of exploration and production taking place offshore.* From the waters near Ireland, Spain, Turkey and Malaysia to Brazil — and in what common geographic maps of at that time still call the Gulf of Mexico.

Shell proves most successful in the 1970s in the North Sea. With the high-quality oil from the Brent field, the company sets the benchmark, and the Brent standard

The Second Oil Crisis

A sharp contrast with the Persian Gulf region, where things soon go haywire again — in Iran. Under the regime of its leader, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a small elite enjoys wealth and luxury, while the majority of the population lives in poverty. In 1978, this leads to mass protests — by students, intellectuals and political opponents.

The Shah responds by further restricting freedoms, declaring martial law. This grants the security services sweeping powers to suppress the protests. But the 37,000 workers of the now nationalised oil industry refuse to accept this. In November 1978, they go on strike. Iranian oil production falls from 6 million to 1.5 million barrels.

Just over a year later (December 1979), the anti-Western, radical Islamic Ayatollah Khomeini seizes power. His neighbour, the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, sees an opportunity in the chaos and sends the Iraqi army across the border. After initial success, Iraqi forces become bogged down in Iran’s long mountain ranges about 100 kilometres (60 miles) inland. The conflict ultimately lasts eight years and becomes known as the Tanker War

Dutch energy policy during the Second Oil Crisis

The Second Oil Crisis does not lead to actual shortages in the Netherlands, but around 1980 the higher prices and inflation do take their toll. The government raises the price of natural gas and increases taxes on tobacco, alcohol, petrol and passenger cars.* In addition, wages are reduced.

To limit fuel consumption, a maximum speed of 100 kilometres (60 miles) per hour on motorways is more strictly enforced. The government continues the energy policy introduced in 1973: more nuclear power, more coal-fired power stations, more solar electricity and more wind energy. It also calls on the Dutch public to use energy more sparingly.

Third Oil Crisis

Jumping mor than fifty years forwards. Spring 2026: war in the Middle East. Israel and the United States attack Iran; Iran retaliates with strikes on US military bases in the region and attempts to disable energy and water installations in US-allied Arab countries. Iran unilaterally declares the Strait of Hormuz closed. Mines are laid and ships come under attack from drones, small boats and missiles.

The production and export of various oil and gas products in the Persian Gulf region come almost to a standstill. There is a global shortage, and in Europe potential shortages of, among other things, aviation fuel and diesel are predicted. For the average consumer, the scarcity of oil and the sudden rise in fuel prices come as a surprise. The Third Oil Crisis is a fact.

_{Sources consulted for this story include: The History of Royal Dutch Shell (Dutch version), by Joost Jonker (* marks quoted paragraphs translated from Dutch to English) (2007);  Huzarenvanboreel.nl}